Renowned historian Allan Lichtman, famous for his spot-on predictions of presidential election outcomes dating back to 1984, recently emphasized that for Joe Biden to lose to Donald Trump in the upcoming election, a series of significant mishaps would need to occur. Lichtman, a professor of history at American University in Washington, DC, relies on a forecasting system dubbed “Historian Who Predicted Every Presidential Winner Since 1984,” which hinges on historical indicators rather than mere opinion polls.
Despite prevailing national polls indicating challenges for Biden and trailing figures in crucial swing states, Lichtman maintains his confidence in Biden’s prospects. He highlights that Biden has already secured two of his “13 Keys”: no substantial primary challenges and the advantage of incumbency. “That’s two keys off the top,” Lichtman elaborated, “meaning six more keys would need to falter to forecast his defeat. A significant downturn would be necessary for Biden to lose.”
Lichtman, who accurately foresaw both Trump’s victory in 2016 and Biden’s in 2020, voices skepticism regarding current polling, asserting that “polls six, seven months before an election have zero predictive value.” He cautions against Biden’s campaign growing overly assured, noting the potential for unforeseen major events to sway the election. “There’s always the chance of a cataclysmic event beyond the scope of the keys that could impact the election,” he remarked.
Referring to the Covid-19 pandemic, Lichtman underscores its pivotal role in his accurate prediction of Biden’s 2020 triumph, stating, “The pandemic is what did him in.” He stresses the significance of governance over campaigning, critiquing Trump’s handling of the crisis.
While acknowledging that some of his keys could potentially favor Trump, such as the presence of a significant third-party challenger and aspects of social unrest, Lichtman still perceives the 2024 election as leaning towards Biden. He openly acknowledges the limitations of his system, admitting to personal pressure, saying, “It’s nerve-racking because there are a lot of people who’d love to see me fail.” He concludes, “I’m human. It doesn’t mean my system’s wrong. Nothing is perfect in the human world.”
