The 2024 Lok Sabha elections in India have been nothing short of a political rollercoaster. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking re-election and the Opposition determined to unseat him, the stakes are high. Let’s explore the key dynamics shaping this electoral battle.
The Opposition, once fragmented, has found common ground against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Regional heavyweights like Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, and Akhilesh Yady
”One was arrested eight months back and spent two months in jail in a corruption case probed by his arch-rival’s administration, the other was written off by many after the latest of his many flip-flops. The two have now emerged as kingmakers in this Lok Sabha election that have not given an absolute majority to the BJP. These two leaders are Bihar Chief Minister and JDU chief Nitish Kumar and Telugu Desam Party leader N Chandrababu Naidu. Nearly 12 hours into the counting, TDP has won 16 seats on its own as the NDA dominated Andhra Pradesh with 21 wins out of 25 seats.
In Bihar, Nitish Kumar’s JDU is set to win 12 seats, the same as BJP, despite contesting fewer constituencies than its ally. As the poll picture became clearer by the evening, reports started doing the rounds that INDIA leaders are reaching out to the two veterans in their efforts to cobble together a majority. None of these were confirmed on record, as Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said they will hold a meeting with other INDIA allies tomorrow on the way forward. PlayUnmute Fullscreen How The Numbers Stack Up At 9 pm, 13 hours after counting began, INDIA allies have together won 233 seats — 39 short of the majority mark. The BJP-led NDA has crossed the majority mark with a tally of 291 — 19 more than the majority mark. The BJP has scored 239 on its own — 33 short of the magic figure. Among the 19 unaligned MPs are four from YSRCP and Independents. So, if the INDIA bloc wants to have a shot at power, they need a combo of JDU, TDP and some Independents too.
The BJP, on the other hand, must retain them at all costs if they want to stay in power. In fact, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge dropped a broad hint when he spoke of new partners in the party’s presser this evening. “Until we talk to our alliance partners… and the new partners that could join us about how we could work together and get a majority, we will see. If I reveal all our strategies now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will become wary (‘hoshiyar ho jayenge’).” The Flip-Flop Man Mr Kumar’s latest switch to the NDA, months after he led the efforts to stitch together an Opposition alliance, had drawn much ridicule, with many writing his political obituary. After decades of leading NDA in Bihar, Mr Kumar had to settle with less number of seats as the BJP made it clear who the boss is. Cut to June 4, and the JDU chief holds the upper hand. And with his history of flip-flops, the BJP cannot be too sure.”
In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, two influential leaders have emerged as potential kingmakers, shaping the political landscape despite the BJP falling short of an absolute majority. Let’s take a closer look at these key players:
Nitish Kumar (JDU Chief):
Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister of Bihar, has a history of shifting alliances. He was arrested eight months ago and spent two months in jail in a corruption case investigated by his arch-rival’s administration.
Despite facing criticism and being written off by many due to his frequent flip-flops, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) (JDU) is set to win 12 seats in Bihar, the same as the BJP, even though the JDU contested fewer constituencies than its ally.
His recent switch to the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) after leading efforts to form an Opposition alliance surprised many. Now, he holds a significant position as a potential kingmaker.
N. Chandrababu Naidu (TDP Leader):
Naidu, the leader of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh, has also emerged as a crucial player.
The TDP has won 16 seats on its own in Andhra Pradesh, contributing to the NDA’s dominance with 21 wins out of 25 seats in the state.
Naidu’s party has a history of socialist politics and has been a key player in regional politics.
As the counting progressed, reports circulated that other INDIA leaders are reaching out to these veterans to form a majority government. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge hinted at exploring new partnerships to achieve a majority1. The numbers indicate that the BJP-led NDA has crossed the majority mark, but the INDIA bloc still needs a combination of JDU, TDP, and some Independents to have a shot at power. Meanwhile, the BJP must retain its allies to stay in power2.
Nitish Kumar’s unexpected resurgence and Chandrababu Naidu’s influence underscore the significance of regional parties in shaping the government formation process. Their decisions could have profound implications for the BJP and its leadership3. The political landscape remains dynamic, and alliances may shift further as negotiations unfold.
